把气候责任从国家下沉到个人 —— 一个可计量、可激励、不可炒作的个人气候治理机制Bringing climate responsibility from the state down to the individual — a measurable, incentivisable, non-speculative personal climate governance mechanism.
MECHANISM
WHY INDIVIDUALS
2025 年 11 月的贝伦气候大会（COP30）以「全球共同努力决定」把气候行动从谈判室推向日常社会，并明确把「广泛的公众参与」写入全球实施加速器（GIA）的机制设计。个人层面的计量与激励，正在从 NGO 的自选动作，变成实施轨的组成部分。The Belém climate conference (COP30) in November 2025 pushed climate action out of the negotiating room and into everyday society through the Global Mutirão Decision, and explicitly wrote broad public participation into the design of the Global Implementation Accelerator (GIA). Measurement and incentives at the individual level are moving from an NGO's optional gesture to a component of the implementation track.
把「全球动员」从号召写入国际法层面，气候行动要进入社会日常。Turning global mobilisation from a call into an international-law-level commitment; climate action must enter everyday life.
正式共识轨之外另设实施轨——全球实施加速器（GIA）与贝伦 1.5℃ 使命。Beyond the formal consensus track, an implementation track — the Global Implementation Accelerator (GIA) and the Belém 1.5°C Mission.
列为三大目标之一；会前全球主题行动线上触达近 2 亿人。Named one of three headline goals; the pre-COP global campaign reached nearly 200 million people online.
转型的社会成本必须被管理，否则政治反弹会吞掉减排成果。The social cost of transition must be managed, or political backlash will swallow the emission gains.
国家自主贡献（NDC）管的是生产端与领土排放，而居民消费端排放处在政策传导的末端：碳价信号在履约企业层面终止、无法穿透到最终消费者；居民减排行为分散、微小、难核证；已有激励依赖财政与企业补贴，不是市场化闭环，规模一大即难持续。Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) govern production-side and territorial emissions, while household consumption emissions sit at the far end of the policy chain: the carbon price signal stops at regulated firms and never reaches the final consumer; household reductions are dispersed, tiny and hard to verify; and existing incentives rely on fiscal or corporate subsidies rather than a market-based closed loop, becoming unsustainable once scaled.
在碳这件事上，「测不准比测得出更危险」。机制的可信度不取决于覆盖面，而取决于每一个碳单位的可核证与不可重复计算。 In carbon, measuring badly is more dangerous than not measuring at all. The credibility of a mechanism depends not on coverage but on whether every carbon unit is verifiable and not double-counted.
FOUNDATIONS & GAPS
无需从零造轮子。三个城市的碳普惠实践已经拼出了完整的零件：立法与账户底座（衢州）、行为—积分—碳市场消纳的闭环（上海）、规模化采集与跨域互认（武汉）。There is no need to build from scratch. Carbon-inclusion practice in three cities has already produced the full set of parts: the legislation-and-account foundation (Quzhou), the closed loop from behaviour to points to carbon-market retirement (Shanghai), and large-scale collection with cross-regional mutual recognition (Wuhan).
| 城市City | 制度 / 产品Institution / Product | 关键数据（公开报道）Key public figures |
|---|---|---|
| 衢州Quzhou | 全国首部碳账户地方性法规（2026-05-01 施行）；区域 / 单位 / 项目 / 个人四类账户China's first local regulation on carbon accounts (in force 2026-05-01); four account types — regional, entity, project and individual | 239.6 万个碳账户，18 岁以上覆盖率 95%；33 家金融机构 46 款碳金融产品，贷款余额超 1200 亿元2.396 million carbon accounts, 95% coverage of adults; 33 financial institutions with 46 carbon-finance products and a loan balance above ¥120 billion |
| 上海Shanghai | 碳普惠平台＋分布式数字身份（DID）＋区块链；1 克减排量 = 1 碳积分Carbon-inclusion platform + decentralised identity (DID) + blockchain; 1 g of reduction = 1 carbon point | 42 万市民、116 万笔兑换；累计签发近 19 万吨，成交超 6.14 万吨；减排量已用于配额清缴履约与大型活动减排注销420,000 citizens and 1.16 million redemptions; nearly 190,000 t issued and over 61,400 t traded; reductions used for allowance compliance and event carbon-neutral retirement |
| 武汉Wuhan | 「武碳江湖」个人碳账户＋跨省碳普惠共同体"Wutan Jianghu" personal carbon accounts + a cross-province carbon-inclusion community | 注册用户超 250 万，记录低碳行为 1 亿次、个人减排量 8.4 万吨；打通 22 条数据渠道、接入 17 个应用Over 2.5 million users, 100 million low-carbon actions recorded and 84,000 t of personal reductions; 22 data channels and 17 applications connected |
若按「1 积分 = 1 克减排量」换算，积分兑换的隐含单价与碳市场的真实成交均价相差约 8 万倍。兑换价是营销补贴（由财政与商家买单），市场价才是碳的真实边际成本。因此本机制坚持：绿碳券必须锚定市场价，不锚定兑换价。Converted on the basis of "1 point = 1 g of reduction", the implied unit price of points differs from the real average carbon-market price by roughly 80,000×. The redemption price is a marketing subsidy paid by government and merchants; the market price is the true marginal cost of carbon. Hence this mechanism insists: GCT must be anchored to the market price, not the redemption price.
兑换价是补贴，市场价是成本。价格信号若锚错对象，激励机制就会整体失真。（课题组整理，2026-10）Redemption price is a subsidy; market price is a cost. Anchor the price signal to the wrong object and the entire incentive distorts. (Prepared by the research group, 2026-10)
本设计引入统一的计量单位与评级语言，让跨域互认从「一对一签约」变成「同一套标准」。This design introduces a unified unit of account and rating language, turning cross-regional recognition from one-off bilateral agreements into a single shared standard.
现有积分奖励「做对的事」，但不区分「谁本来排放就低」与「谁真的在改变」——本设计以努力度权重大于现状权重来修正分配公平。Existing points reward "doing the right thing" but do not distinguish those who always emitted little from those who are genuinely changing — this design corrects distributional fairness by weighting effort above status.
PERSONAL CLIMATE INDEX
指数回答「我是谁、我改变了多少」：以三类九项指标合成 0—1000 分，映射为 A—E 五级；评级只影响铸造系数，不影响锚价。The index answers "who I am and how much I have changed": three categories and nine indicators combine into a 0–1000 score mapped to five grades A–E. The grade affects only the minting coefficient, never the anchor price.
基准线取「同城 × 同住房条件 × 同家庭规模 × 同收入档位」人群的分位数，而非全体平均——「只奖励努力，不惩罚处境」：住在老房子、挤地铁的人不会因结构性低排放被人为抬高，也不会因高排放被简单判负。The baseline is the percentile of peers matched on city × housing × household size × income band, not a city-wide average — "reward effort, not circumstance": those in older flats and on public transport are neither artificially inflated for structurally low emissions nor simply penalised for high ones.
| 维度Dimension | 权重Weight | 指标Indicator | 计量口径Measurement |
|---|---|---|---|
| S 现状S Status | 35% | S1 居住排放强度S1 Residential emission intensity | 人均 kgCO₂e/年（电、气、热）kgCO₂e per capita per year (electricity, gas, heat) |
| S2 出行排放强度S2 Travel emission intensity | gCO₂e / 人·公里gCO₂e per person-km | ||
| S3 饮食碳强度S3 Dietary carbon intensity | kgCO₂e / 千卡，或动物性食品占比kgCO₂e per 1,000 kcal, or share of animal-based food | ||
| S4 物品服务碳强度S4 Goods & services carbon intensity | 支出结构加权排放因子Expenditure-weighted emission factors | ||
| E 努力E Effort | 45% | E1 减排幅度E1 Reduction magnitude | 相对同群基准线的减排率Reduction rate versus the peer baseline |
| E2 行为连续性E2 Behaviour continuity | 活跃月数 / 12Active months / 12 | ||
| E3 行为多样性E3 Behaviour diversity | 覆盖场景数（出行 / 能源 / 回收 / 消费 / 办公）Scenarios covered (travel, energy, recycling, consumption, office) | ||
| E4 结构性投入E4 Structural investment | 光伏、热泵、电动车、能效改造（按年摊）PV, heat pump, EV, efficiency retrofit (annualised) | ||
| I 影响I Influence | 20% | I1 带动人数I1 People mobilised | 经本人邀请新开通并达活跃门槛的人数Invitees who activated and passed the activity threshold |
| I2 公益贡献I2 Public-benefit contribution | 捐赠绿碳券量、志愿服务时长GCT donated, volunteer hours | ||
| I3 公共倡导I3 Public advocacy | 社区讲座、课程授课、科普传播Community talks, teaching, science communication |
GREEN CARBON TOKEN
绿碳券回答「改变值多少钱、怎么兑现」：锚定型碳权益凭证，一端连着经核证的个人减排量，另一端连着碳市场的消纳通道。个人只有铸造权，没有认购权——任何机构不得向个人出售绿碳券。GCT answers "what is change worth, and how is it cashed out": an anchored carbon-rights certificate connecting verified personal reductions at one end to the carbon market's absorption channel at the other. Individuals hold only a right to mint, never a right to subscribe — no institution may sell GCT to individuals.
1 枚 = 0.1 吨 CO₂e（100 公斤）。日常行为量级下，「一年攒下几十枚」比「攒下几枚」更有获得感。1 token = 0.1 t CO₂e (100 kg). At everyday magnitudes, "dozens a year" feels far more rewarding than "a handful".
以碳市场真实成交均价为锚，1 枚 ≈ 6.25 元；锚价按季度公布、随碳市场滚动调整。Anchored to the real average carbon-market price: 1 token ≈ ¥6.25; the anchor is published quarterly and rolls with the market.
年度铸造上限按剩余碳预算逐年递减（建议 4%/年）；碳价连续两季上涨超 30% 时，下期铸造自动收紧 10%。The annual minting cap declines each year with the remaining carbon budget (proposed 4%/yr); if the carbon price rises more than 30% for two consecutive quarters, the next minting tightens by 10% automatically.
| 通道Channel | 内容Content | 上限设计Cap design |
|---|---|---|
| ① 行为挖矿① Behaviour mining | 绿色出行、节能、回收、低碳饮食、线上办公等（复用碳普惠方法学与采集渠道）Green travel, energy saving, recycling, low-carbon diet, telework, etc. (reusing carbon-inclusion methodologies and data channels) | 按核证减排量 × 评级系数；单人年度封顶Verified reductions × grade coefficient; annual per-person cap |
| ② 资产挖矿② Asset mining | 户用光伏、绿电认购、热泵 / 能效改造、电动车替代、碳汇认养（需核证单据）Rooftop PV, green-power subscription, heat pumps / efficiency retrofit, EV substitution, carbon-sink adoption (with verification documents) | 按核定减排量；资产类按年摊，防一次性刷满By approved reductions; assets annualised to prevent one-off maximisation |
| ③ 影响挖矿③ Influence mining | 带动新人、公益捐赠、社区讲座与课程授课Recruiting new users, charitable donation, community talks and teaching | 年度不超过全网铸造量的 15%，防社交刷量No more than 15% of network-wide minting per year, to prevent social-volume gaming |
| ④ 公益配捐④ Public-benefit matching | 企业与地方政府 1:1 配捐，定向铸造给低收入家庭能效改造、乡村学校等1:1 matching by firms and local governments, earmarked for low-income energy retrofits, rural schools, etc. | 定向、不可转让、需第三方见证Earmarked, non-transferable, third-party witnessed |
注：「挖矿」仅为隐喻，实际机制是经核证的减排量登记发行，不消耗算力、不产生额外能耗。Note: "mining" is only a metaphor; the mechanism is registration-based issuance of verified reductions — no computing power, no extra energy.
EXITS & GUARDRAILS
绿碳券的用途白名单只有三条，别无其他；七条护栏逐条对应境外链上碳资产的失败案例。The whitelist of uses has only three entries and no others; the seven guardrails each answer a specific failure of offshore on-chain carbon assets.
公共交通、文旅、商品与服务折扣；权益方汇集绿碳券回兑减排量，进入碳市场消纳。Discounts on public transport, culture and travel, goods and services; partners pool GCT back into reductions for carbon-market retirement.
个人重要活动的排放注销，不可逆、出具注销凭证。Retiring emissions for personal milestone events; irreversible, with a retirement certificate.
捐入公共池，用于低收入家庭改造、生态修复、乡村学校。Donated into a public pool for low-income retrofits, ecological restoration and rural schools.
| 护栏Guardrail | 境外失败案例的直接死因Direct cause of death in failed offshore cases | 本设计对策This design's response |
|---|---|---|
| G1 | 高收益质押制造抛压 → 死亡螺旋（KLIMA 自约 3,946 美元跌至约 0.04 美元，−99.99%）High-yield staking creates sell pressure → death spiral (KLIMA fell from ≈US$3,946 to ≈US$0.04, −99.99%) | 持有零利息，禁止任何质押与生息产品Zero holding yield; all staking and yield products prohibited |
| G2 | 同质化池抹去项目层细节，坏碳与好碳等价Homogeneous pools erase project-level detail; bad and good carbon become equivalent | 每枚带唯一序号与五要素，禁止混同池Every token carries a unique serial and five attributes; mixing pools prohibited |
| G3 | 低门槛桥接「僵尸项目」（约 28% 桥接信用来自被主流市场排除的项目）Low-threshold bridging of "zombie projects" (about 28% of bridged credits came from projects excluded by mainstream markets) | 仅接受现行碳普惠 / CCER 方法学核证的减排量；禁桥接已注销凭证Accepts only reductions verified under existing carbon-inclusion / CCER methodologies; bridging retired certificates prohibited |
| G4 | 发行面向投机资本与预售Issuance aimed at speculative capital and pre-sales | 只向行为主体发行，个人无认购权、不预售不私募Issued only to the acting individual; no subscription right, no pre-sale, no private placement |
| G5 | 自由转让导致价格脱离碳基本面Free transfer detaches price from carbon fundamentals | 转让仅限家庭共享、赠与、公益捐赠三类，平台登记、无撮合Transfer limited to household sharing, gifting and charitable donation; platform-registered, no order matching |
| G6 | 无监管主体与法律地位，处于全球监管灰区No regulator or legal status; a global regulatory grey zone | 纳入地方碳普惠平台与联盟链，接受监管沙盒；衢州已有立法先例Brought into local carbon-inclusion platforms and consortium chains under a regulatory sandbox; Quzhou offers legislative precedent |
| G7 | 「先买信用再靠代币升值融资」的本质矛盾"Buy credits first, then finance the ecosystem by token appreciation" — an inherent contradiction | 每一吨减排量都真实存在并可被碳市场消纳，不依赖代币升值Every tonne of reductions really exists and can be absorbed by the carbon market; no reliance on token appreciation |
单人持有封顶 20,000 枚（= 2 吨 CO₂e），超出部分自动转入公益池或限期兑换，防囤积。A single holder is capped at 20,000 tokens (= 2 t CO₂e); any excess automatically moves to the public pool or must be redeemed within a deadline, preventing hoarding.
铸造后 T+30 方可兑换；同一行为多账号探测、设备指纹、异常路径监控。Redemption is available only at T+30 after minting; multi-account detection, device fingerprinting and anomaly-path monitoring guard against gaming.
BOUNDARIES
本机制按「权益化，非法币化」设计。以下是它不是什么，以及永远不做的事。This mechanism is designed as "a right, not a currency". Here is what it is not — and what it will never do.
不可兑付法定货币或加密资产，不可支付流通。境内虚拟货币交易禁令是硬约束。Not redeemable for fiat currency or crypto-assets, not a means of payment. The domestic ban on virtual-currency trading is a hard constraint.
不承诺收益、不做「碳中和」营销标签、不进入任何交易场所。No promised returns, no "carbon-neutral" marketing label, and no listing on any trading venue.
零暴露架构：只采已脱敏行为标签，本地或边缘侧完成碳量换算，授权可撤回、账户可注销、对外只发布聚合值。Zero-exposure architecture: only de-identified behaviour labels are collected; carbon conversion happens locally or at the edge; consent is revocable, accounts deletable, and only aggregates are published.
ROADMAP
当前定位为课题组的学术研究与机制设计，以下为研究性展望，不构成落地时间承诺。Currently positioned as the research group's academic research and mechanism design; the following is a research outlook, not a commitment to a delivery timeline.
跑通「行为 → 指数 → 铸造 → 兑换」；PersonalZCI 内部版上线，仅开放权益兑换单一出口。Run behaviour → index → minting → redemption end to end; launch an internal PersonalZCI with a single benefit-redemption exit.
引入资产挖矿与公益配捐；与 2—3 城互认，评级进入碳惠贷 / 以碳抵贷定价参考。Introduce asset mining and public-benefit matching; recognise with 2–3 cities; feed the rating into carbon-inclusive / carbon-offset loan pricing.
官方公布锚价，发布城市级聚合指数。Officially publish the anchor price and release city-level aggregated indices.
跨境碳普惠互认（互认行为标签与评级方法，不互认货币化权益）。Cross-border carbon-inclusion mutual recognition (recognising behaviour labels and the rating methodology, but not monetised rights).